Seasonality is another headwind here. September has historically been the weakest month of the year, with 16 of the last 20 years seeing a 4%+ pullback. That history, combined with stretched positioning and fading retail flows, has markets on alert for volatility even if the broader trend remains bullish.

A standard 25 bps cut is fully priced in, but a surprise 50 bps cut could fuel near-term volatility. While it might trigger a knee-jerk “sell the news” reaction, cheaper financing and easier policy ultimately support risk assets.

The post S&P 500: Sell-the-News Risk? first appeared on LINDEX.

That driver comes this week — Retail Sales and Housing Starts on deck, but all eyes are on the FOMC. Traders will get the full package: economic projections, Powell’s press conference, and the interest rate decision itself.

The market has already priced in three rate cuts for this year, which explains why downside reactions have been muted. That said, surprises matter. A larger-than-expected cut could send the dollar sliding, while a cautious Fed could spark knee-jerk buying.

Looking forward, the real tell will be in the data. Retail sales, housing, and especially labor remain the compass for where the Fed goes next — and by extension, where the dollar trades.

The post Dollar Steadies Ahead of Fed Near 97.4 first appeared on LINDEX.

On the fundamental side, UK GDP showed no growth in July, cooling off from June’s 0.4% rise. Manufacturing dropped 1.3% and dragged on momentum, though the series remains volatile and unlikely to sway the BoE much.

Heading into next week’s BoE meeting, the focus isn’t on rates — most expect them to stay on hold at 4% — but on how the Bank handles quantitative tightening. They’ve already reduced £100 billion in gilts, and markets think they’ll slow that pace. If they don’t, gilt yields could climb and pressure the pound. In short: risks for GBP are more tied to bond markets than the rate path.

The post Sterling Stalls as Growth Softens, BoE in Focus first appeared on LINDEX.

The latest jobs report showed a loss of roughly 65,500 jobs in August, pushing the unemployment rate up to 7.1% — its highest level since 2016 outside of the pandemic. The weakness was broad-based, hitting transportation, manufacturing, and professional services. Combined with softer inflation readings, markets are increasingly confident the Bank of Canada will pivot toward easing in the months ahead.

Crude oil has provided some support, but not enough to offset the hit from labor weakness and BoC repricing.

The dollar has been subdued following softer U.S. CPI and a jump in jobless claims — now at nearly a four-year high. Payroll revisions have further highlighted cracks in the labor market. Fed funds futures now price around 75 bps of cuts by year-end, suggesting one cut at each of the three remaining FOMC meetings starting next week.

The post Jobs Shock Weighs on CAD first appeared on LINDEX.

CPI landed broadly in line with expectations, but U.S. jobless claims jumped to 263K vs. 235K forecast, confirming once again that cracks in the labor market are spreading. This shift in focus matters: the Fed has already pivoted its priority toward jobs, and higher claims give them more cover to deliver a bigger September cut.

That was enough to knock the dollar lower across the board, with USD/JPY retreating along with other dollar pairs. For now, the pair remains heavy as traders weigh whether the Fed moves 25 bps or even 50 bps next week.

The post Weak Labor Data Knocks Dollar Back first appeared on LINDEX.

Before the release: The euro had been trading steady, with markets anticipating unchanged rates but closely watching for guidance on inflation and growth. Traders were looking for clarity after recent volatility tied to politics in France and broader eurozone uncertainty.

The ECB left rates unchanged at 2.15%, as expected. But the bigger story came from their updated forecasts. Inflation was nudged slightly higher for 2025–2026, suggesting price pressures linger. However, growth projections were cut — 2026 was revised down to 1.0% while 2027 held at 1.3%.

Bottom line: Euro bulls were hoping for a hawkish push from Lagarde, but weaker growth projections stole the show, questioning heavy upside in EUR/USD

The post ECB Growth Woes Pressure the Euro first appeared on LINDEX.

Yields are forward-looking — they reflect where investors expect interest rates to go. A falling 10-year yield tells us markets are pricing in lower rates ahead, and that’s a direct signal of confidence in future Fed cuts.

Earlier this year, the Fed held off on cutting rates because yields stayed sticky despite softer inflation data. Cutting in that environment would’ve risked credibility. But now, with yields finally sliding alongside weaker labor data, the Fed has a safer opening to ease policy.

At 4.059%, Investors see the Fed finally having the green light to move, not just because inflation has cooled, but because cracks in the labor market make it urgent.

Bottom line — the bond market is telling us that easier policy is coming, and equities and metals are already feeding off that expectation.

The post U.S. 10-Year Yield is Signaling the Shift first appeared on LINDEX.

Lower interest rates make financing cheaper for corporations. That supports earnings growth, boosts valuations, and tends to fuel equity markets — especially for sectors sensitive to borrowing costs.

Weak U.S. labor data has reinforced the Fed’s dovish tilt, locking in expectations for September rate cuts. Traders are now debating whether we’ll see a 25 bps move or a more aggressive 50 bps cut. More easing = more growth potential, which is why equities keep climbing.

Today’s weaker-than-expected PPI numbers show inflation pressures easing. That only strengthens the case for Fed cuts and keeps the bullish narrative alive for risk assets like the S&P.

All eyes now shift to tomorrow’s CPI release. A soft print could cement the case for a 50 bps cut, while stickier inflation would keep the Fed cautious with 25 bps.

The post S&P500 Is Riding the Rate Cut Wave first appeared on LINDEX.

Technical Setup: Why I Entered

From a technical perspective, silver had a very strong breakout on the spot chart. To identify potential entry levels, I used Fibonacci retracement levels.

• Entry Point: The 38.2% retracement lined up cleanly with a past level of resistance that had turned into support. This confluence gave me confidence to take a long position.
• Initial Stop Loss: At first, I set my stop just below the 61.8% retracement, then adjusted it to just under the 50% retracement for tighter risk control.
• Momentum in My Favor: Almost immediately, price started moving higher. As silver pushed through resistance and formed new higher highs, I began trailing my stop upward to lock in gains while still giving the trade room to breathe.

This trailing stop approach means I’ll stay in the trade as long as the uptrend remains intact, but if price breaks down and fails to hold support, I’ll exit with profits.

Sentiment: Institutional Positioning

Beyond chart patterns, sentiment data has also been very supportive of silver. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed institutions buying aggressively:

• Adding long contracts
• Reducing short contracts

When institutional traders increase their exposure in this way, it’s often a strong sign of continued momentum.

Fundamentals: Macro Environment

Finally, the fundamentals provide the bigger-picture reason why silver (and gold) have been in demand.

• Sticky Inflation: Inflation remains elevated, reducing confidence in the U.S. dollar.
• Weak Labor Market: Recent jobs data came in far below expectations—just 22,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 75,000.
• Stagflation Risks: Slowing growth combined with persistent inflation creates an environment where investors often turn to hard assets like silver and gold.

These conditions line up perfectly with what we’ve been seeing in the EdgeFinder: consistently bullish scores for both gold and silver based on sentiment, trend strength, and economic data.

Key Takeaways

This trade is a good example of how I combine multiple factors into my decision-making process:

• Technicals help identify timing and risk levels.
• Sentiment shows what institutions are doing.
• Fundamentals explain the bigger picture driving demand.

For me, the plan is simple: trail my stop as price continues to form higher lows and higher highs on the 4 hour chart, which is the timeframe I used to enter the trade. If price breaks down, I’ll step out and take the profit.

$560 Off EdgeFinder - Ends September 12th!

The post Breaking Down My $17,000 Silver Trade first appeared on LINDEX.

Despite sticky inflation, the dollar is weighed down by weakening labor data. Normally, persistent inflation would argue for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. But with cracks showing in the labor market, the Fed risks over-tightening if they wait too long. Powell has made it clear: jobs data is now the top priority.

The dollar is stuck between two forces: inflation that’s still sticky and a labor market that looks increasingly fragile. The next round of data — starting today — will decide which one drives the Fed’s hand and the dollar’s next big move.

The post Dollar at Risk: Weak Labor Data and Jobs Revisions first appeared on LINDEX.